BJ Penn recently responded to a tweet from Jake Shields saying, “I would never challenge one of Cesar Gracie’s guys, but you’ve been calling me out for years. Let’s do it! I’ll contact Dana”, which starts the speculation about what would happen in a fight between these two superstars. So MMANonstop has broken down this potential matchup.
Of course, both fighters are relatively recent new additions to the welterweight division within the UFC. Penn has bounced back and forth within different weight classes in the organization and briefly held the welterweight title back in 2004 (before signing with K-1). Jake finally made his long awaited debut a few months ago, beating a top contender in Martin Kampmann, and then losing his most recent outing against GSP. He has, however, held welterweight titles in other various organizations in recent history.
Both Penn and Shields are well renowned Brazilian Jiu Jitsu artists, and seem to have a knack for either finding their opponent’s neck (9 choke outs by Jake, 6 from Penn), or neutralizing their opponents and winning by decision. And inspecting the other measurables and finding more similarities, both fighters are 32 years old, have roughly the same number of fights (Shields 32, Penn 25), and recently lost to the most dominant fighter in the division.
BJ Penn has a few more losses than Jake Shields on his record, but they read like a Who’s Who of MMA’s elite: Hughes, GSP, Edgar, Pulver and even Lyoto Machida. Penn’s wins, however, read the same way: Sherk, Florian, Sanchez, Hughes (twice), Pulver and Rodrigo and Renzo Gracie, to name a few.
Jake Shields, besides losing to GSP, doesn’t have the wow factor when you look at his losses, but his competition was still stiff. In 2000, Shields lost to Phillip Miller. I’ll save you the trouble, Miller stopped fighting in 2003, but retired with a record of 16-0, so there’s no shame in that loss. He also split a pair of fights with Akira Kikuchi, who delivered Shields his most recent loss prior to GSP. Since that loss though, his wins are also so high quality that we can simply say: Okami, Condit, Daley, Lawler, Henderson, Kampmann…and you get the picture.
So why would either guy think he could win a seemingly evenly matched fight? Of course, dealing with athletes like these, the advantages are minimal (and many times mental), and the openings need to be capitalized on in a heartbeat; but, each fighter definitely can see openings.
The real advantage in this fight for BJ Penn is his striking. In most cases, a 2” reach disadvantage would nullify the greater striker, but BJ has KO’d Matt Hughes, and he picked apart Kenny Florian. Both of those fighters have longer reaches. So, even if I *said* that BJ couldn’t connect with Shields in a fight, BJ might just pop me in the nose from across the room to prove a point. Look at the success that GSP had against Shields with a straight jab and overhand right. He obviously saw an opening there and was able to exploit it multiple times in the fight, even staggering Jake, but never able to turn off his lights. BJ Penn has finished 7 fights by KO/TKO, so this is a definite possibility of how the fight would end. Even without landing that finishing blow, BJ has out-boxed some excellent fighters (see Sherk, Sanchez).
Shields has only lost by TKO once, and it was very early in his career, and since that time he has worked on his quickness and agility to prevent that from happening again. What Shields has proved his advantage would be in a fight like this is his cardio. He’s been in plenty of wars, and even after eating more than his fair share of GSP’s STIFF jabs, was still fighting at the end of 5 rounds (and arguably won the last two). With his training regimen, toughness, and resiliency, as the fight goes into later rounds Jake could find himself in a position to take rounds 2 and 3 if he can withstand the early onslaught. After exhausting himself with a very aggressive weight cut, Shields willed his way to a win over a fresh, motivated, and very dangerous Martin Kampmann.
So, what would happen in this hopeful, future super-fight? It’s a pretty straightforward thought process, and in asking either fighter, both would probably see it going the same way (neither fighter was able to be reached prior to publication). BJ would attack, expecting to end it quickly, and Shields would plan to weather the storm and take the second and third rounds. Neither fighter has ever lost via choke, but in this fight, it would happen.
I have BJ Penn over Jake Shields. Penn stuns Shields with an overhand right, takes his back and makes him tap via RNC, 3rd minute, 1st round. Book it.
Now Dana, just make it happen.
Brian Churchin created his series "The Book On..." exclusively for MMANonstop.com. Follow him at twitter.com/bchurchin.
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