Given the injuries to Cain Velasquez and Brock Lesnar, the landscape of the Heavyweight division in both the UFC and Strikeforce has been altered. Taking Brock out of the picture, and assuming Cain is still the man to beat, here is MMANonstop's ranking of the Top 5 Heavyweights in MMA.
5. Alistair Overeem (34-11, 1NC) – Alistair Overeem is the best striking HW in the world, he's proven this by winning his last eight MMA fights in the first round. The Reem will attempt to continue his streak on June 18th in Dallas, TX when he faces one of the last men to beat him (#3 on our list). “The Demolition Man” hasn’t lost a fight since getting KO’d by Sergei Kharitonov in the K-1 HERO’s tournament finals in September 2007*, and with the way he’s been tearing through anyone who steps in the ring with him (be it Deep, K-1, or MMA) a victory on Jun e18 will have fans clamoring for an Ultimate Superfight to unify the HW titles between Strikeforce and the UFC.
In order for Overeem to get by Werdum, and ultimately earn himself the right to challenge for the UFC HW title, he will need to use his striking and movement to stay on the outside. That’s not to say he can’t engage in the clinch game, as he’s not the same “Reem” that fought Werdum back in 2006 that lost by kimura - I don’t see it happening again. He was doing well with his striking and even showed a decent top game before gassing in their first match. Overeem's best chance to continue his current win streak is to overpower Werdum into a 1st rd TKO, and then call out Dana White and the UFC.
*”The Demolition Man” suffered a NC against Mirko Cro Cop in September 2008
4. Frank Mir (14-5) – He was once rumored as the next big thing, at just 25 years old he snapped Tim Sylvia’s arm to become HW champ, only to seemingly have his MMA life come crashing to a stop after a devastating motorcycle accident in 2004. They said he’d never fight again and his hopes and dreams of being a world champion were over; Mir fought back to his old form and not only did he make his UFC return in 2006 (albeit a loss to Marcio Cruz) but he also won the UFC HW Championship with a 2nd rd TKO of the never-before-been-stopped-within-the-distance Big Nog at UFC92 in December of 2008.
In order for Frank Mir to claim his spot atop the HW mountain and earn his right to challenge the man full of “Brown Pride,” he will have to overcome that which they call “Big Country.” Now at first glance one might think that this is an easy fight for Mir, simply take Nelson to the ground and submit him – but that’s where you’re wrong. You see, Nelson has a BJJ victory over Mir from a Grappler’s Quest tournament where he was outpointed due to fatigue. Frank Mir needs to bring his best striking game, a full gas tank and hope for a stand-up battle. If it goes that way, I see Mir taking a split decision, and possibly fighting the loser of the Carwin-JDS match before getting a title shot.
3. Fabricio Werdum (14-4-1) – Werdum was the first man to legitimately beat Fedor Emelianenko, and one of two men to have his hand raised in victory after submitting Alistair Overeem. He's riding a three-fight win streak into his rematch on June 18th with Overeem, and seems to be flying under the radar. He’s beaten the who’s who of MMA HW’s in both Emelianenko brothers, Bigfoot Silva, Mike Kyle, Gabriel Gonzaga and Overeem, and he’s only been stopped once (by #2 on our list) in his career.
Werdum’s best chance at victory in Dallas, will be to get Alistair Overeem to the ground. Whether he baits him there like we saw with Fedor, or he forces the fight there with a takedown of his own, Werdum needs to take Overeem into the deepest water he possibly can and then hope to snap on a fight ending submission similar to their fight in 2006. If they get this far, Werdum will be taking his shot to greatness by way of submission late in the 2nd or early 3rd rd.
2. Junior dos Santos (12-1) – “Cigano” has beaten the guy (Werdum) who beat the guy (Fedor). JDS is the only man to stop Werdum and he did so by way of 1st rd major TKO Upset in October 2008. In his last three fights he’s taken Big Country the distance, TKO’d Gonzaga in 4 minutes and Gilbert Yvel in 2 minutes…not to mention he caused Cro Cop to verbally tap from strikes. This kid’s got it all, heavy hands, excellent footwork and a top-notch ground game – at least that’s what we’re told, we really haven’t had to see it yet - and now he’s got a new opponent to fight at UFC 131 (keep reading).
JDS was next in line for the title shot and in my eyes, he shouldn’t have to fight again before challenging Cain for the belt but he chose to fight rather than sit on the shelf, a good idea if you ask me (see Rashad Evans v. Shogun Rua). Now he just has to take advantage of the opportunity being presented to him, and overcome the boulder of a man in his way – Shane Carwin. If only this was a five round fight...if this makes it through three full rounds with both men standing then we deserve to see the 4th and 5th rounds – consequently that would also be a key to JDS getting the victory over Carwin. We all saw how Carwin overpowered Brock only to run out of gas and get submitted in the 2nd round, and this should be the blueprint for JDS to follow – absorb what you can while delivering punishment in counters, then turn on the heat when Carwin starts to fade. Since it’s only a three round fight, he'll have two rounds after the storm and given the circumstances surrounding the fight, and it will be a stretch, but his best bet to win would be via TKO in the 3rd round which would walk him into a battle with Cain Velazquez.
1. Shane Carwin (12-1) – With the biggest hands in MMA (5X, yes that’s XXXXXL), Shane Carwin also stands as one of the biggest HW fighters in the UFC and in my opinion he’s got to be the number one challenger to the title right now. His only career loss came to then-champ Lesnar in a title-unification fight that some argue he could have won in the first round. Crashing into the UFC scene in 2008, Carwin set the HW world abuzz with his 8-0 record all wins coming by way of KO within 2 minutes – in fact his loss to Lesnar was the only time Carwin’s ever heard the bell to end a round in his professional fight career (Mir did make it 3:48 into the 1st). But coming off of major back surgery and almost a year on the shelf, Carwin has a tough challenge ahead of him in Junior dos Santos.
1st round KO – that’s his best chance in the fight, and the fastest way to earn himself the right to challenge Velasquez for the title. After seeing a totally different Carwin backstage in Toronto on Dana White’s video blog, and hearing him talk about how he has changed his entire diet and lifestyle, Carwin may be ready to make another run at the title – he’s more of a sprinter than a marathoner. Again 1st round KO, and then, no rest for the weary, he'll earn himself another stiff test in Cain Velazquez for the heavyweight title.
Brendan Churchin will examine the Top 5 fighters in each weight class and is featured exclusively on MMANonstop.com. Follow him at twitter.com/bchurchin48
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