The Book On Why GSP's Next Opponent Will Take Away His Belt

By: Brian Churchin

First things first, I was a little off in my official prediction for GSP-Shields at UFC 129. GSP did need a little attention to his face, and Jake didn't look like he ran face-first into a light pole. But all in all, this guy was on par.

Jake Shields had the right idea.

Jake Shields might have won that fight this weekend had it been 7 rounds.

Jake Shields also deserves to make a curtain call (a la Kimo's return to the octagon post-Royce Gracie's departure from UFC 3) after GSP loses his next bout...and if GSP's next opponent (Nick Diaz?) follows the recipe that Jake Shields wrote, he will.

GSP is without a doubt, one of the most gifted and hardest working athletes in all of Mixed Martial Arts. There are very few other fighters that I would want to train with, learn from, or mentor under besides The Canadian Rush himself. However, as a fighter, there were some weaknesses that I saw on Saturday that Nick Diaz, if given the shot, will take advantage of, take the belt from GSP, and then take a payday by fighting a big name (but past-his-prime) boxer.

In the weeks and months leading up to UFC 129, praise was rained down back and forth between the St. Pierre and Shields camps in such a way that I was almost compelled to gather animals two by two to help repopulate the earth after the flood of mutual respect receded. "Jake Shields is the most dangerous fighter I have ever faced." "GSP is the best fighter in the world." "(choose your fighter) is an amazing athlete and hasn't lost in years. He will be the toughest test of my career."

The comments these two fighters made were correct, but the most intelligent, accurate and telling comment made before the fight came from Shields' camp. I'll paraphrase, but the gist of it was, "GSP is an amazing athlete, but we're going to see if he's a fighter. We're going to get him in a fight." Jake's camp tried every way that they could, but couldn't make good on the promise to take GSP's belt. But, they proved they knew how to get it done.

Go back to the end of the 3rd round. GSP walked back to his corner and complained about his injured eye. He pawed at it, looked at his hands, checked for blood, forcefully blinked his eyes and was visibly affected. At the end of rounds 4 and 5, the same result. St. Pierre even posed for the camera post-fight to show off his cut and swelling.

Did Mark Hominick let the fact that he looked like he was smuggling a grapefruit under his forehead slow him down? Nope.

Has Clay Guida ever been bothered by having a mop of bloody hair in his face? Not that I recall.

Did Brock Lesnar change the way he fought when he got picked apart by Cain Velasquez? Wait...bad example.

Jake Shields opened the door for a fighter to come in and take the belt from GSP, and that fighter is Nick Diaz. If Diaz continues to fine tune these 3 facets of his game, when he gets his shot, he'll leave with UFC gold around his waist.

1. A quick jab to close the distance, followed by a short annoying right hook.

This combo was used by Shields at times and it was amazingly successful. Both of these punches need to have one purpose: swell and/or cut the left eye of GSP. Now, granted, this is much easier said than done due to GSP's amazing quickness and uncanny ability to turn a poorly timed hook into his own take down. Diaz is a better boxer than Shields, but Jake still did some damage, even with a distinct reach disadvantage.

2. A world-class sprawl, that is perfected with the team at Black House.

GSP makes take downs look easy, and not even take downs...throw downs. But, take downs can be stopped when defended properly. Look back on two recent specific fights that included Black House Gym fighters. Phil Davis v Lil Nog, and even last night's Randy Couture v Lyoto Machida. The Davis fight was littered with attempted take downs that Noguiera repeatedly shrugged off and followed with a short right hook (see #1). Machida didn't spend any time with his back on the mat, which allowed him to pull off a crane kick that with shades of Daniel Laruso in his battles with the Cobra Kai. If Diaz can sprawl away and defend against takedowns, he can then use his superior boxing skills to frustrate and pick apart the current champ.

3. A focused and intelligent striking attack from the guard.

Let's face it, if you fight GSP, you are going to be taken down. He's too good, too fast and too strong to be able to totally avoid being (viciously and aggressively) put on your back. Diaz will need to make a few solid strikes happen early in this still hypothetical fight, and let St. Pierre know he's getting hit after stopping a takedown or two. Then when he is taken down, still attack the left eye of St. Pierre. This will set Diaz up for easier takedown defense in the late rounds of the fight and then, most importantly, an unsettling of the mind of GSP.

So, if Dana White can get together with Scott Coker and the Diaz camp to make some kind of agreement in which Nick Diaz fights GSP prior to his foray into professional boxing, Diaz will bust him up, frustrate him, end up in dominating positions, and take his title.

Book it.

Brian Churchin created his series "The Book On..." exclusively for MMANonstop.com. Follow him at twitter.com/bchurchin.